For my sins, I was a ‘lurker’ on a recent message board discussion, and part of that thread centred on the popularity of electronic music now compared to ten years ago. Different distributors work different territories and more importantly, the advent of digital distribution means that it is difficult to put an accurate figure on what the big labels of 2006/2007 sell, but it is almost certain that they are not as popular (in sales terms) as labels that were popular ten years ago. A number of label owners have told me that back in 1996/1997, at the very peak of the ‘golden age’ of techno, the average EP sold about 20,000 units on vinyl, while the more popular releases, say Mills’s Purposemaker series, could be expected to sell 40,000 units plus. Those kinds of figures are unheard of nowadays - only the very biggest releases, the ‘Rejs’ and ‘Body Languages’ of this world - could be expected to shift 20,000, let alone double that, on vinyl. Indeed, in-demand labels like Poker Flat shift about 5,000 vinyl units per release (a respectable amount all the same), with smaller labels and artists very lucky to shift 1,000-2,000. We can’t forget about digital distribution, which has provided a much-needed financial shot in the arm for the smaller operations and boosted the sales and profile of the more established acts and imprints.
However, this is where things get interesting: the figures from digital sales aren’t as yet big enough to make up the shortfall between current vinyl sales and vinyl sales of ten years ago. Put simply, and I am open to correction on this from Beatport or one of their competitors, no one is selling 15,000 digital units.
Further evidence that the figures don’t stack up was provided to me last year by one of the biggest acts to emerge in electronic music over the past five years (I’d rather not say who I mean, we’ll leave that open to guesswork), who claimed that in 2006, they had been the best selling act on a leading digital distribution site, clocking up 7,500 sales or thereabouts.
This suggests to me that a few things are happening: a) people aren’t buying as much electronic music as they used to at the moment, but are instead waiting until they feel that the digital services available have reached critical mass in terms of availability (this isn’t a criticism of Beatport et al, more recognition of the fact that a number of well-known labels haven’t ‘gone digital’ yet); b) people are buying exactly as much or possible even more electronic music as they did ten years ago, but that the pattern of consumption is divided between far more labels - 40 labels selling 2,000 units as opposed to two selling 40,000 units – and formats, digital and vinyl; (c or finally that people aren’t buying as much electronic music as they did in the past because, well, it just isn’t as popular or indeed cost-effective as it used to be from a consumer’s point of view. A lot of the casual listeners who would buy an EP every week find the cost too prohibitive nowadays to buy the same EP online – all their local record stores have shut down – and don’t want to invest in CD decks or a set-up like Seratto because they are going to buy the odd MP3. These casual buyers are now far more likely to access free mixes online and save their money for festivals – and that’s why there are so many on in every country across Europe. I’d welcome any comments on this post (apart from abusive ones!) but could it be that the evolution of technology has played a part in killing techno or will techno (and when I say techno, I mean electronic music generally) make a resurgence to enjoy the same popularity it had ten years ago? Let the debate begin…